Weekly buying vs all at once2026-03-18 → 2026-09-17
+15.7%vs +0.0%
Invested$9,835.84Worth now$11,376.8Edge+15.6pp
697 buys · six months · every fill
Buy every week, or all at once?
Six months, 697 buys, $9,835.84 in. Buying on schedule returned +15.7%; the same money and the same split bought on day one returned +0.0%. The gap is the June drawdown, which is when a standing order collects its cheapest units — and the money was only at work 93 of 183 days.
the trade log · every fill
Every trade I have closed, losers included.
+$109.01 across 9 trades — 5 won, 4 lost, profit factor 3.77, worst drawdown −$30.50. Entry, exit and fee on every one of them, straight off the exchange record.
bitcoin network · funding · treasuries
What it costs to run the network right now.
952 EH/s at $33 a petahash. Perpetual funding across six venues, open interest normalised to coins, the BTC price each rig stops paying for its own power, and which listed companies hold what.
latest research
Bitcoin, Ether and Solana all left their range. The odds for the week ahead
34% to 67% — the same claim about 82,300, one day and one 4% session later. Every piece names its dataset and its window, so you can run it again and disagree with the same numbers.
event log · measured reaction
Fed hikes to 4%, first increase since July 2023
Decision hour ranged 1.97% on BTCUSDT against a 0.39% median over the prior 1,000 hours — top 1.3% of the sample — and closed −0.18%. Six hours later price was +0.10% from the decision open.
Realised P&L2026-07-10 → 2026-09-16
+$109.019 closed
Win rate55.6%Profit factor3.77Max drawdown−$30.50
BTC/USDlive
$78,384+0.62%
24h high78,87824h low77,620Venues6
LatestSep 21
34% to 67%
the same claim about 82,300, one day and one 4% session later
Bitcoin, Ether and Solana all left their range. The odds for the week ahead
Taggedbitcoin · ethereum · solana
LoggedSep 17
Fed hikes to 4%, first increase since July 2023
Decision hour ranged 1.97% on BTCUSDT against a 0.39% median over the prior 1,000 hours — top 1.3% of the sample — and closed −0.18%. Six hours later price was +0.10% from the decision open.
Sourceread first-hand
Market
liveBTC$78,384+0.04% 24h
Total cap$2.62TBTC 60.0% dominance
24h volume$1.4Btop 16 pairs, Binance spot
Advancing7/16broad weakness
From ATH-37.1%high $124,659
Halving526d75,783 blocks
What moved
against 24h agoAHR9990.465+1.1%
Mayer1.071-3.8%·2σ
200W mult1.16x+0.2%
From ATH-37.1%+0.4pp
Fear & greed37+3
BTC dominance60.02%+0.8pp·2σ
Hashrate952 EH/s-13.9%
Stablecoins$294.3B-0.3%
Measured against the reading from 2026-11-01 05:57 UTC. Tracks show where each level sits on its published range.
My positions
every fill, losers includedNet realised · 2026-07-10 → 2026-09-16+$109.01
the full log →- Trades
- 9
- Win rate
- 55.6%
- Profit factor
- 3.77
- Avg win / loss
- +9.92%/−3.62%
Every fill from the exchange record, including the 4 that lost.
My DCA
the full record →Six months, 697 buys+15.7%against +0.0% buying it all on day one
Invested$9,835.84Worth now$11,376.80Difference+15.6pp
- Weekly15.7%
- Day one0.0%
Both lines are returns on the same total capital. The gap opens in June, when the market fell 33% and the standing order kept buying — and the money was only at work 93 of 183 days.
37Fear
extreme fearfearneutralgreedextreme greed
0.465accumulate
bottomaccumulatewait
1.16xof MA200W
undermidstretched
Market regime
six measures, normalised- sentiment37
- ahr9990.465
- mayer1.071
- 200w mult1.16x
- from ath-37%
- volatility28%
composite 39/100 · higher is hotter
Stablecoins by chain
the write-up →$294.3Ball chains
- Ethereum47.4%
- Tron31.9%
- Solana5.1%
- BSC4.4%
- Hyperliquid L12.3%
- Base1.7%
- other3.9%
Ethereum and Tron hold 79% of every stablecoin in existence. Source DefiLlama, 2026-11-02.
Total supply
two years, weeklyShare of supply
both falling- Ethereum47.3%
- Tron31.5%
Funding across venuesPositive means longs pay shorts. Compare the annualised column, not the raw rate — Hyperliquid settles hourly and the rest every eight hours, so the same headline number is worth eight times as much there. Spread is the gap between the best and worst venue on an annualised basis, before fees and before the margin you'd need on both legs.
what it pays →spread—
| Venue | Rate | Annualised | Next | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| loading… | ||||
Positive means longs pay shorts. Compare the annualised column — venues settle on different clocks.
Open interest across venuesOpen interest is the number of contracts still open — size, not activity. Rising OI with rising price means new money is coming in long; rising OI into a falling price means shorts are building; a sharp drop in OI without much price movement is positions being closed, which is what a liquidation cascade looks like after the fact. Every venue publishes this in its own unit — coins, contracts, or notional — so all of it is normalised to coins here and valued at one common mark, otherwise the comparison measures basis instead of size.
live · normalised to coinstotal—
| Venue | Open interest | Notional | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| loading… | |||
Contracts still open: size, not activity. Normalised to coins and valued at one mark price.
What options are pricingImplied vol is what the option market charges for the next move, annualised. A curve that slopes up means the market sees no near-term event and is charging more for time; one that inverts means something is expected soon and the front is bid. DVOL's percentile is the honest context for the level — a reading means nothing until you know it sits where it sits in its own 120-day range. Source Deribit, which is where most of the crypto options book lives.
Deribit · BTCFront IV27.3%0.1d to expiry
Term slope+10.9contango vs 29JAN27
Put / call OI0.66book leans calls
Open interest300,380BTC across live strikes
33.6
43.4
| Expiry | Days | IV | OI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25DEC26 | 53 | 37.9% | 136,345 |
| 27NOV26 | 25 | 37.0% | 49,558 |
| 6NOV26 | 4 | 40.4% | 27,179 |
| 13NOV26 | 11 | 38.0% | 11,102 |
| 2NOV26 | <1 | 27.3% | 3,682 |
| 29JAN27 | 88 | 38.2% | 2,566 |
Price
daily close · hover for detailBTCO—H—L—C——VOL—
US spot ETF tapeThis is the tape, not the flow. Volume counts every share that changed hands; creations and redemptions — the number headlines quote as "ETFs bought $X" — come from a paid dataset and are deliberately absent rather than guessed at from price and volume. What the tape does tell you is participation: the vs 20d column above 1.00x means a fund traded heavier than its own recent norm. Source Nasdaq, close of the latest session.
dollar volume · not flowcomplex turnover, last session$6.81B+158% vs 20-day average
daily $ volume20-day average
| Fund | Last | 1d | 3m | $ vol | vs 20d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBITBTC | $43.36 | -5.14% | +19.15% | $5.20B | 2.86x |
| ETHAETH | $50.42 | -4.47% | +18.77% | $639M | 1.18x |
| FBTCBTC | $66.71 | -5.01% | +19.36% | $529M | 2.43x |
| GBTCBTC | $59.12 | -5.12% | +18.88% | $204M | 2.20x |
| BITBBTC | $41.57 | -5.13% | +19.25% | $103M | 2.69x |
| ARKBBTC | $25.43 | -4.93% | +19.45% | $96M | 2.47x |
| FETHETH | $22.23 | -4.39% | +19.13% | $37M | 0.87x |
The tape, not the flow: shares traded, not creations and redemptions.
News
full log →09-17fedFed hikes to 4%, first increase since July 20231.97%decision hour range-0.18%hour close+0.10%6h later
Warsh's first decision as chair, delivered unanimously, with 4.00–4.25% projected through 2027.
Decision hour ranged 1.97% on BTCUSDT against a 0.39% median over the prior 1,000 hours — top 1.3% of the sample — and closed −0.18%. Six hours later price was +0.10% from the decision open.
full write-up →09-17fedWarsh: no need to harm the labour market
"I don't believe that we need to do harm to the labor markets to achieve our objective."
No chair has ever said the opposite, so the line carries no policy information on its own.
09-17macroDollar clears 156 yen, BOJ decides Friday300bpUS-Japan gap1.25%expected BOJ
US at 3.75–4% against Japan's 1% puts the policy gap near 300bp. Reuters has 97% of economists expecting a hike to 1.25%, which would be Japan's highest in 31 years.
The August 2024 carry unwind needed the Fed pricing cuts at the same time. That half is missing here — the Fed just moved the other way.
09-17macroJapan's 10-year touches 2.994%-0.287%2016 low328bpround trip
Highest since 1996. The 2016 low on the same series was −0.287%.
A 328bp round trip on the instrument that funds the world's largest carry trade.
09-17policyEmmer: CLARITY only delayed until after the midterms
House Majority Whip on the failed Senate cloture vote.
Bills die with the Congress. After the midterms this one restarts from introduction, which is a rewrite rather than a resumption.
09-17marketBinance opens Capital Connect to qualified individualslisted onlysurvivorship
Its marketplace for allocating to professional trading strategies, previously businesses only.
Listings on any such venue are the strategies still running. The ones that blew up are not on the page.
09-17defiAave plans an RWA hub on Avalanche$259MAave on AVAX$1.39BAVAX stablecoins
Institutions post tokenised financial assets as collateral to borrow stablecoins, with Tether's USA₮ named as a dollar liquidity source.
Aave V3's entire Avalanche market is $259M, 1.54% of its $16.8B. Avalanche holds $1.39B of stablecoins, 0.46% of all chains. Collateral ports; liquidity does not.
full write-up →09-17protocolZcash holders vote to cut block times 75s → 25s99.9%in favour2019precedent
99.9% in favour, with 97% backing a delay of the Network Sustainability Mechanism to February 2031.
Blossom did the same thing in 2019, 150s to 75s with the block reward cut to match. Same playbook, not a new issuance regime.
09-17macroUS mortgage purchase applications back to 1995 levels+75Mpopulation since 1995
MBA purchase index, per re:venture.
Same index, 75 million more Americans than in 1995.
09-16policyCLARITY Act cloture fails 46–43-3.38%BTC-4.75%ETH-1.42%ETH/BTC
Short of the 60 needed, which ends market-structure legislation for this Congress.
BTC −3.38%, ETH −4.75%, ETH/BTC −1.42%, US 10-year 4.84% → 5.00%. BTC's beta to a −1.66% NASDAQ day accounts for the whole move; the bill's actual footprint is the 1.42% ETH lost relative to BTC, and (1−3.38%)×(1−1.42%) reconciles to ETH's print exactly.
full write-up →11-03aheadUS midterms
CLARITY restarts from introduction in the next Congress, so this is the gate on market-structure law.
11-13aheadDifficulty retarget
Estimated -6.6%, which moves every miner's shutdown price by the same amount in the opposite direction.
12-25aheadQuarterly options expiry
Deribit settles the quarterlies 08:00 UTC on the last Friday. This is where the open interest sits, so it is the one date that reliably concentrates flow.
04-11aheadFourth halving, block 1,050,000
Subsidy drops to 1.5625 BTC. 75,783 blocks out, dated off ten minutes a block — the real date moves with hashrate.
Market board
monthly heatmap & more →| Coin | Price | 24h | USD |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 78,384 | +0.62% | $0.62B |
| ETH | 2,293 | +1.07% | $0.34B |
| SOL | 94.94 | -0.81% | $0.10B |
| BNB | 710.51 | +0.76% | $0.08B |
| XRP | 1.26 | -0.02% | $0.05B |
| NEAR | 4.25 | -2.94% | $0.04B |
| TRX | 0.3145 | +1.29% | $0.03B |
| LINK | 11.36 | -2.93% | $0.02B |
| SUI | 0.8976 | -0.89% | $0.02B |
| AVAX | 8.65 | -3.34% | $0.02B |
| DOGE | 0.0759 | +0.12% | $0.02B |
| ADA | 0.1923 | -0.72% | $0.01B |
| TON | 1.60 | +0.95% | $0.01B |
| LTC | 55.62 | -1.19% | $0.01B |
| APT | 0.6332 | -1.11% | $0.00B |
| DOT | 0.9560 | +0.63% | $0.00B |
Latest
all research →Bitcoin, Ether and Solana all left their range. The odds for the week ahead
The odds each one comes back to the ceiling it just cleared, reaches its 100-week average, and closes above either, rerun on today price.
34% to 67%the same claim about 82,300, one day and one 4% session later
Touching is not holding
Bitcoin reaches the top of its range in 81% of simulated weeks and closes above it in 34%. Three coins, three boxes, and the odds of leaving them, from a bootstrap rather than an arrow.
81% vs 34%odds BTC reaches 82,300 against closing above it
The trigger was the weak part
Seven days ago I posted three conditions instead of a forecast. Both edges of the box produced a daily close outside it, and not one target printed. The box was two ATRs wide.
0.16 ATRhow far past the edge the trigger closes actually got
There are two prices for Bitcoin at $100,000
History says a 28% gain from here happens inside 98 days about 42% of the time. Deribit prices that same move at 7.8%. The gap is the trade.
42% vs 7.8%history vs options, 100k by Christmas
Covered calls on Bitcoin sell the only part that pays
Seven years of Binance daily bars, a monthly covered call simulated three ways. Buy and hold returns 7.90x. The friendliest version of the option strategy returns 0.29x.
0.29x vs 7.90xcovered call vs hold, 7 years